Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
